Evaluation of Power Grid Investment Effectiveness in New Power Systems Considering Decision Psychology and Sustainable Development: An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Urban Power Grid Simulation

ABSTRACT: The evaluation of investment effectiveness in power grids oriented towards new-type power systems is a critical issue for advancing grid transformation and enhancing the scientific basis of investment decision-making. To address the current challenges—such as single-dimensional evaluation, strong subjectivity in index weighting, and insufficient consideration of risks and decision-makers’ psychological factors—this paper aims to construct a hybrid evaluation framework that comprehensively reflects both objective data and subjective decision-making preferences. First, a comprehensive evaluation index system is established, encompassing four dimensions: low-carbon performance, safety, economic efficiency, and intelligence. Second, an innovative integration of the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), the CRITIC method, and the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) is conducted. The combination weights are determined through game theory to scientifically quantify the importance of each index. Based on this, the Improved Cumulative Prospect Theory (ICPT) is introduced to characterize decision-makers’ psychological behavior under uncertainty. Furthermore, by combining Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), an ICPT-GRA-TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation model is constructed. An empirical study of 13 typical urban power grids in China reveals that the proposed model can effectively identify the strengths and weaknesses of investment effectiveness across different regions, categorizing them into development tiers such as “multi-objective collaborative leading type”, “key breakthrough but unbalanced type”, and “system-lagging type”. More importantly, the sensitivity analysis of decision-making psychology demonstrates that the evaluation of investment strategies is highly dependent on decision-makers’ risk attitudes and value orientations. This provides critical quantitative decision-making references for formulating differentiated, precise investment strategies for power grids, offering significant theoretical and practical value for guiding power grid enterprises in optimizing resource allocation and supporting the construction of new-type power systems.