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The Threshold Effect and Mechanism of Environmental Tax Driving Agricultural Innovation and Productivity Development

lssue 4, Volume 3
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The Threshold Effect and Mechanism of Environmental Tax Driving Agricultural Innovation and Productivity Development

Ziyi Zhang Yan Gao * Shi Yin *

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College of Economics and Management, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, China
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Received: 20 March 2026 Revised: 09 June 2026 Accepted: 14 July 2026 Published: 24 July 2026

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© 2026 The authors. This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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Ecol. Civiliz. 2026, 3(4), 10019; DOI: 10.70322/ecolciviliz.2026.10019
ABSTRACT: This study defines environmental tax as a flexible policy instrument that promotes the green and efficient transformation of agricultural production and enhances agricultural innovation productivity; in line with China’s institutional context, it is continuously measured using pollution discharge fees before 2018 and Environmental Protection Tax revenue after the implementation of the Environmental Protection Tax Law in 2018. This paper uses panel data from 30 provinces in China to empirically test the magnitude, direction, and mechanism of environmental taxes on the development of agricultural innovation productivity using a two-way fixed effects model, heterogeneity test model, mediation effect model, moderation effect model, and threshold effect model. The study finds that environmental taxes can significantly promote the development of agricultural innovation productivity. Furthermore, by analyzing geographical locations and functional Positioning of Agricultural Production, it is found that environmental taxes exhibit differentiated characteristics in driving agricultural innovation productivity; Mediation effect tests revealed that environmental taxes promote agricultural innovation productivity by suppressing agricultural carbon emissions; moderation effect tests showed that agricultural industrial structure upgrading plays a positive moderating role in the promotion of agricultural innovation productivity by environmental taxes; The threshold analysis identifies a single carbon-emission threshold: when agricultural carbon emissions exceed the threshold, the productivity-enhancing effect of environmental tax becomes stronger. Heterogeneity tests further show that the effect is most evident in central China and major grain-producing areas, while the western region faces stronger compliance-cost pressure. The study contributes by integrating the compliance-cost, Porter-hypothesis, and nonlinear-threshold perspectives into one agricultural setting and by clarifying the policy boundary under which environmental taxation can foster agricultural innovation productivity.
Keywords: Environmental taxes; Agricultural innovation productivity; Agricultural carbon emissions; Upgrading of agricultural industrial structure
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