Rebuilding Community Cohesion in Migrant-Sending Villages: A Theory-of-Change Model for Social Work and Public Policy in Depopulating Rural Romania

ABSTRACT: Rural out-migration has become one of the most significant drivers of social and institutional fragility in contemporary Europe, particularly in peripheral and migrant-sending regions. Beyond demographic decline, sustained mobility generates care drain, school disengagement, elderly isolation, and erosion of interpersonal and institutional trust, ultimately leading to community fragmentation. While existing research has extensively documented these effects, far less attention has been given to how they can be systematically reversed through coordinated public policy and social intervention. This paper proposes a governance-ready Theory of Change that integrates social capital theory, social disorganization, rural migration studies, and cohesion-oriented social policy into a unified framework for restoring community cohesion in migrant-sending rural areas. The model specifies how multi-sectoral policy inputs, spanning social work, education, local government, civil society, and EU cohesion instruments, activate bonding, bridging, and linking forms of social capital, generating measurable improvements in school engagement, community participation, intergenerational solidarity, return-migrant reintegration, and institutional trust. Through two complementary visual models, a linear recovery pathway and a self-reinforcing cohesion cycle, the paper demonstrates how social recovery becomes cumulative and resilient once critical relational and institutional thresholds are reached. The proposed framework advances rural development scholarship by shifting the focus from managing migration impacts to governing social regeneration, offering a transferable policy architecture for strengthening cohesion, resilience, and sustainable development in mobility-affected rural regions.