The Impact of Digital Infrastructure on Economic Resilience: Evidence from the Four Major Regions of China

ABSTRACT: Amid accelerating global structural changes and China’s transition to the digital-driven fourth industrial revolution, this paper examines the impact of digital infrastructure on economic resilience by clustering China’s 31 provinces into the four major economic regions during 2008–2022. Through the application of the Threshold Regression Model, Mediation Effect Model, and GTWR Model, the analysis reveals that digital infrastructure exhibits a threshold effect in enhancing economic resilience, with significant increasing marginal returns beyond specific scale thresholds. Regional heterogeneity is pronounced: the eastern region demonstrates amplified nonlinear benefits, while the northeast exhibits diminishing returns after crossing the threshold. Industrial diversification is an effective way for digital infrastructure to build resilience. The effects of industrial specialization, however, vary by region: it strengthens resilience in the east, weakens it in the central region, and shows no statistically significant impact in the western and northeastern regions. The findings provide empirical evidence for regionalized policymaking during technological paradigm shifts, highlighting the need to consider both digital infrastructure scale thresholds and industrial structure dynamics in economic resilience strategies.