Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping of Stakeholder Governance Perceptions: A Causal Architecture for Managing Pinctada radiata in the Eastern Mediterranean

ABSTRACT: Understanding how governance systems respond to ecological complexity requires analytical approaches that capture both biophysical interactions and stakeholders’ interpretations of causal relationships within socio-ecological systems. In the Eastern Mediterranean, the Indo-Pacific pearl oyster, Pinctada radiata, poses a governance challenge because it is simultaneously perceived as a non-indigenous species, an ecosystem engineer, and a livelihood resource. This study develops the Causal Cognitive–Institutional Architecture (CICA) for marine governance. Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM), it formalises stakeholder reasoning and socio-economic interactions. Stakeholder-specific causal maps were constructed for fishers, scientists, and government officials. The resulting models reveal distinct but complementary causal logics: fishers emphasise stewardship, collaboration, and livelihood security; scientists prioritise ecological stability, environmental change sensitivity, and habitat impacts; and government officials primarily emphasise regulatory coherence and enforcement. These stakeholder-specific maps were then integrated into a unified governance model using a weighted linear fusion procedure. The unified FCM identifies collaboration, community education, and environmental change sensitivity as highly influential cross-domain concepts, while institutional trust emerges as a fragile but consequential governance variable. Scenario simulations indicate that interventions targeting collaborative and learning-oriented mechanisms generate broader stabilising responses across the system than enforcement-centred interventions alone. The CICA–FCM framework provides a transparent diagnostic approach for identifying governance bottlenecks, integrating heterogeneous stakeholder reasoning, and supporting adaptive management of P. radiata under ecological uncertainty.