Vulnerability Assessment of Food Crop Production and Climate Change: Implication for Agricultural Productivity and Development in Nigeria

3.1. Socioeconomic Characteristics of the Farming Households Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics of the farming households surveyed in this study, highlighting key demographic, economic, and agricultural production variables. The results indicate that the average quantity of maize harvested per hectare was 11.6 tons, while cassava production averaged 15.8 tons per hectare. The variability in yields suggests differences in farm productivity, which may be influenced by factors such as farm size, soil fertility, access to inputs, and climate conditions. The average farm size of 8.3 hectares, with a wide range from 1 to 22 hectares, indicates that smallholder farmers with limited land resources coexist with relatively larger-scale producers. Additionally, the average age of household heads is 49.2 years, which suggests that most farmers are middle-aged or older, which aligns with studies indicating that the ageing farming population in Africa poses challenges to agricultural productivity and innovation [5,12]. As shown in Table 1, the gender distribution reveals that 62.9% of the household heads are male, which is consistent with [18,19], who reported that male farmers often have better access to resources such as land, credit, and agricultural extension services compared to their female counterparts. In terms of economic factors, 72.6% of the farmers reported having off-farm income sources, which is in line with studies indicating that livelihood diversification is a common coping strategy for smallholder farmers in response to climate shocks [20]. Membership in cooperative societies was high, with 77.2% of farmers participating, which suggests that social capital plays an important role in accessing credit, market information, and adaptation resources. Additionally, 82.2% of farmers had contact with extension agents, reflecting the potential for technology dissemination and climate-smart agricultural practices through extension services. However, access to climate information was relatively low at 42.3%, which could limit farmers’ ability to make informed adaptation decisions. The findings underscore the importance of climate information and extension services in enhancing farmers’ resilience to climate change. Studies [3,21] have shown that access to climate information significantly improves farmers’ adaptive capacity, enabling them to adjust planting dates, adopt drought-resistant crops, and implement soil conservation techniques. Limited access to climate information may account for the variability in farm productivity, as farmers without timely weather forecasts and climate projections often struggle to mitigate risks, thereby contributing to higher vulnerability indices. Figure 1 presents extreme climatic factors affecting respondents’ crops. It is essential to understand how various climatic stressors influence smallholder agriculture in Nigeria. Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, erratic rainfall, and temperature fluctuations can significantly impact crop productivity, leading to food insecurity and economic hardship for farming households [11]. Notably, rising temperature extremes, floods, and drought negatively impact crop growth, accelerating evapotranspiration, and increasing plant stress and vulnerability, which ultimately reduces yields [15,22]. 3.2. Extreme Climatic Factors and Crop Vulnerability The study assessed the vulnerability of food crops to different climatic stressors—drought, flooding, and high-temperature intensity. As shown in Table 2, the results indicate that drought poses the most significant threat to food crop production, with maize (0.773), cassava (0.626), millet (0.577), and yam (0.601) showing high vulnerability indices. Flooding is also a critical concern, primarily affecting maize (0.622) and cassava (0.505), while millet and yam appear to be more flood-resilient. Conversely, high-temperature intensity has a comparatively lower impact on all crops, suggesting that temperature fluctuations alone are not a major determinant of vulnerability in the study area. The high vulnerability of food crops to drought is consistent with global climate studies, which emphasize water scarcity as a leading cause of food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa [13,23]. Prolonged dry spells reduce soil moisture, lower yields, and threaten livelihoods [3,5]. Consistently, flooding poses a crop-specific challenge, impacting maize and cassava more severely than millet and yam. While high-temperature stress appears to be less severe, its long-term effects on crop physiology and pest outbreaks require continued monitoring and adaptation strategies [19]. This highlights the need for crop diversification, flood-resistant seed varieties, and improved drainage systems to mitigate the adverse impacts of extreme rainfall events. Furthermore, early warning systems and land-use planning policies must be strengthened to reduce farmers’ exposure to flood-related risks.